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The quickest assessment is to look at 3 measures.
First, look at 5-year enrollment trends. If the trend is down over those five years, be concerned.
Second, I look at 4-year graduation rates. While not a direct financial indicator, it does show whether a college has the students along with the systems and processes to graduate students in 4-years. You will want to be aware that the higher education industry is subtly trying to move the 4-year graduation rate expectation to six year.
Finally, I look at the total endowment. Anything less than $50 million suggests that the college doesn’t have the donors or systems and processes to college financial gifts.
It is also important to look for patterns. Enrollment trends, operating results, revenue, expenses, endowment, tuition dependence, and other financial indicators collectively tell a story. One bad year doesn't necessarily concern me. Several years of deteriorating numbers do.
Our College Viability Inspection Report and My College Decision Lens both offer those data points for your review and comparison
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Since most colleges (especially private ones) are heavily reliant on tuition revenue, I watch for declining enrollment. In particular, I watch for enrollment declines over a period of 5-10 years. I also believe that it will take at least 4 years for a college to recover from one bad enrollment year. A series of bad years makes that scenario even more challenging.
Here is a subtle one. I track something called the CAPEX to Depreciation ratio. It is an indicator of a college’s ability to keep current with maintenance of capital equipment (hardware and software) and buildings. A ratio below 1.0 for a period of years is a negative indicator of a college’s financial health.
A company called Perspective Data Science tracks that ratio. You can ask the college reps about the ratio, but they probably don’t know what it is.
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Absolutely. Growing enrollment doesn't guarantee financial health. A college can add students while discounting tuition so heavily that revenue doesn't keep pace with expenses. That's why I want to know not only whether enrollment is growing, but whether revenue and financial strength are growing with it.
Ask a college for its ‘average first-year discount rate for its newest class of students. If that discount rate is above 50%, be concerned. It is important to note that the high discount rate can be good for the student and bad for the college at the same time.
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The My College Decision Lens tracks the past 5 reported years. If 3 or more flagged, be concerned. Flagged numbers are those below a revenue to expense ratio below 1.0. It indicates that a college has more expenses than revenue.
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I think of operating margin as one of the simplest measures of whether the college's financial engine is working. Is it bringing in enough operating revenue to cover operating expenses? A college cannot consistently spend more than it takes in without eventually making difficult choices. The operating margin needs to be about 1.0 or higher over most years to indicate a college is financially healthier.
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For tuition-dependent colleges, tuition revenue is the fuel that keeps the institution operating. If enrollment and tuition revenue decline while expenses remain high, something eventually has to give.
If you are looking for a more nuanced discussion, colleges are in a market where there are to many colleges and not enough students. As a result, college can differentiate on only one factor: price. So they discount their tuition (by calling it a scholarship or merit aid) to get students to enroll.
There isn't one Revenue used to pay down interest on debt is revenue that can’t be used to pay faculty or add amenities.
Debt used strategically isn't necessarily bad. Debt combined with declining revenue and recurring losses can be dangerous.
No. That's one of the misconceptions I want families to avoid. There are two basic types of endowment funds: restricted and unrestricted. A large endowment can provide significant financial strength, but restrictions may limit how much can be spent. I also want to know the size of the institution and the endowment available per student.
A larger unrestricted endowment give a college more flexibility to invest those funds as it deems necessary.
Be wary of colleges that are digging into restricted endowment funds. It is commonly viewed as a last-gasp measure at survival.
Because size matters. A $100 million endowment supporting 1,000 students represents something very different from a $100 million endowment supporting 10,000 students. Per-student comparisons provide much better context.
The College Viability Inspection Report and My College Decision Lens both provide details on this measure.
It tells me to investigate. Market conditions can cause short-term declines, but persistent reductions may indicate that the college is drawing on reserves to support operations. That's very different from temporary investment volatility.
Most college financial leaders will tell you they like to keep what is called the endowment draw at about 4-5% annually. Those funds are used to support typical operations. As colleges draw a higher percentage, it negatively impacts the endowment’s ability to grow.
It is also important to note that a college’s endowment has historically been driven as a means to keep a college open into perpetuity. Drawing those funds down at an accelerated rate increases the risk of a college not having the resources to do that.
Very important. Colleges need liquidity to make payroll, maintain facilities, pay vendors, and handle unexpected problems. An institution can own substantial assets and still have serious cash-flow problems.
Much of it is publicly available through federal databases, IRS Form 990 filings for nonprofit colleges, audited financial statements, bond documents, and other disclosures. The problem isn't always that the information doesn't exist. The problem is that families aren't accustomed to looking for it.
Here is a BIG ‘however’, College Viability has developed tools and data that use these government data sources. We have taken the data and made it easy to search for and compare colleges. We focus our tools on college financial health, graduation rates, value, and investment return.
Here are links to:
Because they let me move beyond marketing claims and examine the institution's actual finances. I can see revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, debt, operating performance, and sometimes warnings from the institution's independent auditors.
These audits are performed by independent accounting firms.
It is a serious warning. It generally means substantial doubt has been raised about the institution's ability to continue operating. I would never automatically conclude that closure is inevitable, but I would want answers before recommending that a family make a major financial commitment.
The time period for a “going concern” reference in an audited financial statement is 12 months.
For nonprofit institutions, Form 990 can provide valuable information about revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, executive compensation, governance, and other financial activity. I consider it another piece of the inspection process.
It also lists the top 5 vendor expenses for each year. I use that to see if a college is spending too much in one area when compared to other colleges.
It means the college has to cover the difference somehow. Maybe it uses reserves. Maybe it borrows. Maybe it sells assets. Maybe it cuts expenses. None of those solutions can indefinitely compensate for a business model that consistently loses money.
In today’s higher education market, I see hundreds of private colleges with a chronic inability to manage expenses in line with revenues.
Rather than setting one universal number, I compare institutions with relevant peers and examine trends. Is instructional investment increasing or decreasing? Is spending keeping pace with enrollment and tuition? Those comparisons can tell us a great deal.
I use a target of about 55%. For every $100 in expenses, salaries should consume about $55. Colleges are labor-intensive organizations, so salaries and benefits will naturally be a major expense. But when personnel costs consume too much revenue, management has less flexibility. That can eventually lead to hiring freezes, layoffs, program reductions, or other cuts.
Yes. That's why I don't rely on a single metric, rating, building, endowment number, or marketing claim. Financial health is about the relationship among multiple indicators and how those indicators are changing over time.
That is one of the many reasons we don’t suggest that a college will close. We provide tools and data that will let each student and family decide if a college’s financial health is too risky to consider.
If I had to choose only one, I'd start with something called the FTE enrollment trend. FTE is a measure that standardizes enrollment comparisons. But my real answer is: don't rely on one number. College viability is about patterns. Look at enrollment trends, graduation rate trends, endowment value trends, and much more.
When I talk about college viability, I'm asking a simple question: Does this institution appear to have the financial resources, enrollment base, operating performance, and student outcomes necessary to deliver on its promises into the future?
Higher education has a long history of being less than transparent with its students and families – especially as it related to the college’s financial health.
College Viability was created to create and improve the financial health transparency that colleges often ignored. That lack of financial transparency has put countless families in position of reacting when a college closes.
My experience shows that the closure of any college is preceded by a substantial period of bad trends over the course of many years.
Financial health tells me about the institution's current condition. Viability asks where it appears to be heading. A college may be financially healthy today but moving in the wrong direction. That is why the College Viability Inspection Report and My College Decision Lens were created. They help users assess their individual risk in choosing a college based on its financial health results.
Nobody can predict the future with certainty. What I can do is examine several years of trends. If enrollment, revenue, margins, reserves, and student outcomes are deteriorating simultaneously, I have more reason to question the institution's future.
It is really the comparisons that make it easier to differentiate colleges.
The College Viability Inspection Report compares and contrasts:
a. Student outcomes:
Retention rates
Graduation rates
Pell equity gap (what rate Pell recipients graduate compared to non-Pell)
b. Financial health:
Revenue to expenses ratio (should be above 1.0)
Enrollment trend
Endowment value
c. Value for your money:
Cost versus completion
Tuition allocation
Price versus outcomes
The My College Decision Lens compares and contrasts:
a. Pre and post college visit comparisons
b. Academic profile acceptance comparisons
c. Priority factor college matching based on your:
a. Must-haves
b. Important
c. Lower priority
d. Data tables that rank your colleges against only your priorities
e. Bar charts for easy comparison of your colleges against 13 different measures
f. Scorecards for each of the colleges you are considering that show your college compared to national medians.
Usually it's a combination of student demand, financial resources, disciplined management, strong student outcomes, an appropriate cost structure, and the ability to adapt. Strong colleges aren't necessarily the biggest colleges. They're institutions whose resources and strategies match their realities. It is easy to identify both the financially strong and weak from their data.
That is one of the features that makes the College Viability products useful.
Because closure is only the most extreme outcome. Financial weakness can show up long before closure through fewer majors, fewer courses, faculty reductions, deferred maintenance, reduced student services, athletic changes, and diminished campus life.
No. Some small colleges are exceptionally strong. Others face significant challenges. Size alone doesn't determine viability. I want to know whether enrollment, resources, expenses, market demand, and outcomes are sustainable.
As a general guide, colleges with enrollment less than 1,000 students in non-urban areas carry more closure risk. There are certainly many exceptions, but if a college you are considering is small and rural, make sure to use the College Viability system and its tools to make a more informed decision.
Public institutions have advantages that many private institutions don't, but that doesn't mean families should ignore performance. Public colleges can face budget cuts, declining enrollment, program reductions, low graduation rates, consolidations, and campus restructuring.
Customers have questions, you have answers. Display the most frequently asked questions, so everybody benefits.
Customers have questions, you have answers. Display the most frequently asked questions, so everybody benefits.
Customers have questions, you have answers. Display the most frequently asked questions, so everybody benefits.
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You'd inspect a house before spending hundreds of thousands of dollars. Why make a $100,000+ and 4+ year college decision based mostly on brochures, rankings, and marketing?